Bailout or Subsidized Stupidity?

The proposed bailout didn't sit really well with me when I first heard about it, since it felt like rewarding people for making bad decisions, and it didn't help the people that are really feeling the pain -- i.e. the people getting kicked out of their houses.

This is not to say that I think people should get rewarded for buying a house they couldn't afford, but if you're trying to prop up the economy by dumping government money into it, I'd much rather it went to people whose worst mistake is not being able to do math than people who intentionally engaged in high-risk investment and then covered it up with an impenetrable paper trail.

But what do I know -- my expertise is in getting chips to work, not finance. A lot of commentators are blasting congress for not immediately giving Paulson the $700 billion blank check he was looking for, but recently economists are singing a different tune.

Politico summarizes the reaction of a number of economists, and a wide spread of economists signed this letter.

Luigi Zingales summarizes how I feel (with better credentials):

For somebody like me who believes strongly in the free market system, the most serious risk of the current situation is that the interest of few financiers will undermine the fundamental workings of the capitalist system. The time has come to save capitalism from the capitalists.

His full paper is here.

Engaged!

Last weekend I flew to to the Mariposa Airport along with Joahnna and Zach as part of a Tradewinds fly-in to Yosemite. Dave, one of the pilots, organized the whole outing, including figuring out the logistics of how to get from the Mariposa airport to Yosemite.

This ended up being a cab ride from the airport, with three trips to get all 11 of us to the Mariposa visitor's center where the YARTS bus stops.

The bus ride in took around two hours, and we ended up in Yosemite around noon. We grabbed a quick bite to eat and I pushed for the waterfalls hike. Once on the hike we split up into two groups, with the three of us as well as John S. and his girlfriend Cathy outpacing the rest of the group.

On the way up the stairs to get to the Vernal fall, the group started flagging a bit. John and Cathy turned back and I egged on Joahnna and Zach to keep going for the top. The steps to the fall are reasonably steep, so it's a pretty good workout to get there.

Once at the top I gave Zach a quick briefing on what I had in mind, then posed for a "photo" with Joahnna. Before the photo was taken, I said "just wait a second, I have a question for you" and pulled the ring out of my pack. I gave my proposal on bended knee and, fortunately, it was accepted.

Joahnna bubbled for a bit while I grinned, and passers-by congratulated us. We talked to one couple that said that they had proposed at this spot ten years ago, which we thought was a good sign.

After that we started back down, since time was short and we weren't sure if we would be able to make the bus ride back. We pushed down at an aggressive pace and managed to make the 3:30 bus with a minute to spare.

Joahnna napped for part of the bus ride back and spent the rest of the ride playing "I Spy" with Joshua, the grandson of one of the other pilots. We received another round of congratulations from the pilots in the Tradewinds group. Back in Mariposa, we woke up Zach, everyone piled out and we caught the first taxi shuttle back to the airport.


I took the opportunity to gas up the plane with the cheapest avgas I have seen recently ($5.07) while the taxi shuttled in the other two groups, and then we posed for a quick group photo before taking off into the evening sun. We landed just as sun set, at 7pm.

Afterwards we invited Joahnna's family over to our house for drinks and chatted a bit before heading to bed. After a full day of flying and hiking (plus a couple of gin and tonics) we slept very, very well.

Defconomy

This link is an article about 5 steps (modeled on the "DEFCON" system used by U.S. strategic command) from situation-normal to Great Depression-style economic meltdown.

The steps and descriptions come courtesy of Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics. The interesting thing about this article is that it was originally published in february, and at the time of writing we were at Defconomy 5. Now we're somewhere around 3 or 2, and it's played out almost exactly as described.

Emergency Preparedness

I spent some time over the weekend preparing a survival pack for my car and updating the one in Joahnna's. Partially this was just an excuse to go poking around in Steven's Creek Army Surplus, which always has lots of odd and entertaining military gear to look at mixed in with their outdoor stuff. But it's also that it seems rather short-sighted to live in one of the most geologically active regions of the world and not take at least some minimal preparations.

What I was aiming for is a version of the 72-hour urban survival kit, the idea being it just has to get you through the time from the earthquake hits to when FEMA gets their act together. Note that, after seeing the Hurricane Katrina performance, this may end up being more than 72 hours. Towards that end I bought a 5-gallon jug of water for the garage. We normally have a bunch of bottled water around the house, but Murphy's law says that the quake will hit just as we're about to go to Costco for more.

What ended up in my pack was:

• 6 16oz bottles of water


• Folding knife


• Beef jerkey (although I later read on the site that trail mix would be better)


• Plastic canteen survival kit (has a few useful items, including poncho, survival blanket, whistle and matches)


• Water purification tablets


• Hydrogen peroxide


• Trauma bandages (2" to 6" thick gauze pads)


• Hand-crank flashlight


• Duct tape

By my quick estimate, this cost me about $65, although some items are hard to tell (the trauma bandages I split across 3 different kits). The most expensive item was the canteen survival kit, at $15. A used backpack to store it all in was also included, which was about $12.

Hopefully I'll never need it, but since California has a 99% chance of having a major quake in the next 30 years, it will probably come in handy at some point.

Unusual Names

I've always felt that unusual names add a bit of flavor to one's personality. Partially it's personal bias, since "Guy" is at least a moderately unusual name in the U.S. (although I'd fit right in in France or the U.K.). But there is such a thing as taking it too far.

And the parents in New Zealand who named their child "Talula Does The Hula From Hawaii" arguably have gone that far, and then some. A judge sensibly allowed the child to change her name to something more reasonable.

Also entertaining from the article were some of the other names that people have attached to their offspring -- my favorite is "Number 16 Bus Shelter."

Instrument Pilot

After almost a year of instrument flying lessons, I finally took my instrument practical test (and passed, more importantly). The instrument rating means that I can now fly into regions of low visibility, fly through clouds, and land at airports that are overcast. It also means that I have at least a basic knowledge of the many pages of regulations specifying under what conditions I cannot do those things.


The picture (courtesy of FlightAware) shows the exact path my aircraft took over the course of my check-ride. My clearance was KRHV RV SJC V-334 SUNOL V-195 ECA KSCK. We flew from Reid-Hillview to Stockton, did a GPS approach at Stockton, followed by a failed-instrument approach to Tracy. I missed my initial call to turn and join the course on that one, so the controller took me through a 270 turn to come back and join the course. I go straight west until joining the 220 radial off of ECA, then fly towards the Tracy airport until we hit the missed approach point.

Normally at that point I would fly north along the SAC-157 radial, but when I tried to dial in the SAC VOR, I got nothing, so the examiner told my to use the GPS to fly to the TRACY intersection and hold. You can see my holding pattern as the part that looks like a scribble in the middle of the trace. After holding for a bit and getting my act together, we flew the ILS into Livermore (hard to see, since the track is very close to my outbound track).

After going missed at Livermore, the ride was basically over, so I flew us back to Reid-Hillview while chatting with the examiner. After pulling off a nice no-bump landing, the examiner signed my temporary certificate and asked, "So when are you going for your commercial?"

Almost There

So I tried -- for the second time -- to have my instrument flight test today, but I was stymied by an uncooperative aircraft. Last night I tried to start the plane and it wouldn't turn over (dead battery), so I pulled the battery, bought a battery charger at AutoZone, and hooked it up to the charger overnight. This morning I went out to the airfield early to reinstall the battery and prep the aircraft. After filling up the tires with air, I got in the plane and tried to start it. The battery was nice and healthy, but the engine wouldn't go.

It would catch and turn a few times and then stop, which I couldn't figure out. Eventually I tapped one of the mechanics on the shoulder and had him try; he couldn't get it started, either.

So I called up the inspector and cancelled the test, and pulled (literally) the plane over to the hanger of another mechanic. I gave him the keys and headed into work, and just about the time I got to the office, the mechanic gave me a call. Apparently he looked at the magnetos, which were fine, tried starting the plane and it started right up.

Go figure.

Will try again next week.

The Return Leg

I'm just finishing up my last day in Israel and getting ready for my return flight. I had a fun weekend poking around Tel Aviv with my co-worker Lior (more on that later), and now am looking forwards to my outbound interrogation at the airport and red-eye back to Newark. Managed to nap a bit on the way outbound, hopefully I can repeat the trick on the way back. I've found that even a couple hours of sleep puts me in much better shape once I hit the ground.

Due to the plummeting dollar, the exchange rate here is not so good, and I may be deprived of reading material for the simple reason that I can't afford to buy any more books. I picked up one book for the flight -- a history of the battle of Stalingrad -- for around 80 NIS, which works out to about $25 USD for a book that's marked as $7.99. I've heard of reading being an addiction but this is just silly.

Haifa

I arrived in Tel Aviv monday evening (local time), and took a taxi from Tel Aviv to Haifa, where I am staying for my trip. The hotel is on a hill overlooking the sea, which gives a nice view from some of the rooms. My room is on the side of the hotel, so I get a little slice of sea mixed with the hillside.

Haifa seems to be mostly built on the local hills. According to my local informants, this is because it is very humid at sea level, and the climate on the hills is cooler and generally much more pleasant, so most of the hotels and nicer houses are on the hill. It's still relatively humid at the hotel, though.

I walked around briefly last night to stretch my legs and try and tire myself out for bed, but haven't really looked around the city. Tonight I may go for a lengthier excursion, including finding somewhere to eat other than the hotel restaurant, whose prices are murderous at the current exchange rate. The 130 NIS for dinner may be a normal hotel price, but it turns into $40 for a buffet dinner. I suspect I will have a fight with the reimbursement department when I get back.

Same problem, different continent

According to El Reg, my favorite sarcastic news site, the British are having some of the same problems we are in convincing their Generals to fight the war they are fighting right now, as opposed to some theoretical war in the future that requires lots of fancy toys.

I could almost take my post from a couple weeks ago and replace "F-22" with "Eurofighter Typhoon" and be done with it. They say misery loves company, but for some reason it doesn't make me feel any better to know that another country is blowing their taxpayer dollars on less-than-useful kit, too.

Odd Times

Today has certainly started out on a bizarre note. For starters, you can tell the economy is getting bad when strippers feel the need to drum up business. After all, this is not normally an industry segment that advertises much (outside Vegas), as there is, shall we say, a built-in demand for their services.

Which is why I was surprised (and amused) this morning as I turned on to Lawrence Expressway, and saw two young, relatively attractive women holding up pink signs that said "Kit Kat Club -- $15 Lunch Buffet".

Afterwords I got in to work and began my early-morning work-avoidance routine (reading the news). While doing this I saw this CNN article about the D.C. handgun ban being struck down. There were a variety of supporting and opposing opinions filed by various groups. Coming in on the side of gun owners was not only the NRA, but a group called the Pink Pistols -- a group which promotes gun ownership for "gay, lesbian, bi, trans, or polyamorous persons".

I wonder what the rest of the day has cooked up for me. It's not even 10AM yet.

Not Lacking in Chutzpah

I have to admit, Blackwater has really outdone themselves on this one.

The widows of three U.S. soldiers filed suit against Presidential Airways after Blackwater Flight 61 crashed in 2004 while carrying the men over Afghanistan. The National Transportation Safety Board blamed the crash on procedural problems at Presidential.

But the News & Observer says lawyers for the military contractor argued in a recent court filing that the case should be decided based on the laws of Afghanistan.

After securing agreements in Iraq that their employees there should not be subject to Iraqi law for their actions, it wants this case tried under Sharia law because the plane owned and operated by a U.S. company operating for the U.S. government carrying U.S. soldiers happened to crash into Afghani soil.

When trying to be despicable, they really pull out all the stops, don't they?

Cool or Cold Fusion?

A researcher in Florida claims he is on the path to having a workable flying saucer. It works by ionizing the air around the saucer, causing air currents that provide lift. The best part is that it's all solid state, with no moving parts.

Initially I laughed it off, although apparently this is the culmination of years of government-backed research into this area of fluid dynamics. Now I'm at "I'll-believe-it-when-it-flies".

Sexy, but...

Just read a couple news articles on the launch of the new ICON amphibious aircraft. It's a good-looking plane, with nice lines and clearly a lot of auto-type industrial design having gone in to it. I just wonder if they remembered the "plane" part.

Once you get past the sexy looks, the proposed specs don't look so attractive. First, all the numbers are estimated, so should be taken with a grain of salt. Compared against the closest competitor, the Czech Aircraft Mermaid, it's about the same speed (120 mph vs. 118), both of which are slow relative to other light-sport aircraft, which can cruise at 135-140mph. That seems to be the price of the amphib.

At $140k, it's fairly pricey relative to competitors at $85-110k, and 420 lbs of load makes it effectively a one-seater, since you can't carry 2 180lb adults and reasonable fuel. The Mermaid has a load of 505 lbs, and non-amphibs are usually good for 600lbs.

The dash is a triumph of design for non-pilots. To the uninitiated, I suppose it looks futuristic but comforting in a sports-car way. To a pilot/owner, it looks like a bunch of useless plastic taking up perfectly good panel space that will have to be ripped out at the first avionics upgrade. Speaking of which, if I'm going to pay top dollar for an aircraft, it should come with top-of-the-line avionics, and not gussied-up steam gauges. Important items such as an audio panel, transponder and 2nd comm radio are absent and have no obvious home. I can only hope that the interior is a mock-up and that sanity will prevail once they start rolling down the production line.

In short, I won't be lining up to buy one, but then again I already have a plane. The styling and the automatic swing wings are attractive, and I have always liked the amphib's ability to use any water area as a runway. But ultimately the ICON seems overpriced for what you're getting.

Pretty, But Pretty Useless

It's no secret that I'm not a huge fan of the current administration, but it seems like defense secretary Gates has got his priorities straight. He is seeking to curtail production of advanced fighter aircraft like the F-22 and focus on the needs of immediate conflicts, which run more to UAVs and transport aircraft.

Gates has often singled out the cutting-edge Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor as a prime example of what he deemed misplaced military priorities. "The reality is we are fighting two wars, in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the F-22 has not performed a single mission in either theater," Gates told a Senate committee in February.

Gates sacked current air force head General Mosely and his suggested replacement will be the first head of the air force in 25 years who is not a former fighter pilot.

Like most large institutions, the Air Force fights for its own aggrandizement rather than looking to the good of the whole, and is actively trying to increase the amount of porkfunding going its way. But the reality on the ground is that the Air Force is increasing irrelevant for modern conflicts -- airpower over the battlefield is most likely to come from a carrier, or from ground-support aircraft like the A-10 or attack helicopters (which the Air Force hate). Strategic bombing is passe for modern low-intensity conflicts, our nuke inventory is being gradually reduced, and cyberwarfare is much-hyped but of improbable use on an actual battlefield. So the Air Force needs to find a new mission or risk being downsized into a military version of UPS.

Would that be a bad thing? Perhaps not.

Engineer Humor

I was reading through the IEEE specification for Ethernet (thrilling stuff), when I noticed the following bit definition:

45.2.1.12.2 STFU (1.30.14)
When this bit is set to a one, the PMA/PMD sends a message to the link partner instructing it to be silent for
the silence time (see 45.2.1.12.3).

To translate that into english, there is a bit called "STFU" which informs the other end of the link to cease transmission ("stop talking"). For those not up-to-speed on their instant messaging/texting shorthand, "STFU" is short for "Shut The F*** Up".

I'm sure someone had a laugh when they snuck this one into the spec.

Muddy Water

I generally don't expect to stumble across political controversy when I'm reading my morning aviation news, but this morning read that Blackwater is apparently expanding the scope of its operations by purchasing Brazilian figher aircraft.

This implies that Blackwater is branching out from the basic security work it did previously and planning on being a full-fledged army, including air support. They already manufacture their own APCs.

Most disturbing is the almost complete lack of oversight of a group whose actions represent and reflect upon the American people. Blackwater contractors are not accountable under military law (as they are civilians), are exempt from Iraqi law (by executive order of Paul Bremer), and may not even be accountable under U.S. civilian law (proper jurisdiction, evidence may not meet U.S. evidence requirements). Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

Moving to Canada

From the I-can't-believe-these-people-also-live-in-my-country column, a coalition of right-wing commentators and columnists forced Dunkin' Donuts to pull an online ad because it supports Islamic Terrorism features Rachel Ray wearing a scarf.

The idiots defenders of our freedom claim that Rachel is a terrorist apologist because she showed up in the commercial looking like this:For reference, a keffiyeh looks like this:


Note that the keffiyeh comes in a variety of colors and patterns; the key element seems to be that it is worn on one's head (I will confirm this after tracking down one of our local Lebanese).

I'm a little unsure as to the logic chain followed here, but I'm guessing that it goes something like:

1. Terrorists wear keffiyehs
2. A keffiyeh is a square piece of cloth
3. A scarf is a square piece of cloth
4. Therefore, anyone wearing a scarf is a terrorist

Budget Flying

I found an article discussing a new Light Sport aircraft, the X-Air. This has a list price of $47k, which makes it cheaper than your average new BMW. At this price it even includes a panel-mount radio and good engine instruments, although they don't include a transponder (required if you're going to fly anywhere near a major airport).

Obviously there are some trade-offs in making an aircraft this inexpensive, and the main one they have taken is that it is fabric-covered, and thus not as durable in the long run as an aluminum or composite aircraft. However, it has folding wings and it can fit in a trailer, so you could park it at your house instead of at the airport.

The main thing counting against it is that it's slow, with a cruise speed of only 90mph. But if you're not in a tearing hurry to get somewhere, this seems like it could be a fun aircraft.

Historical Gas Prices

Everyone knows that gas is more expensive than it used to be, but this chart shows the price of gasoline indexed to inflation. At the time the chart was made, the inflation-adjusted price had not broken the all-time high in 1918, although it also puts the average gas price at $3.08/gallon (price as I drove by the gas station this morning: $4.09 for regular).

Wikipedia also has a good article on the 1973 oil crisis (the last time gas prices were this high). A major factor at the time was that price controls were put into effect, causing the rationing and shortages. The article also mentions early on that:

Since oil demand falls little with price rises, prices had to rise dramatically to reduce demand to the new lower level of supply.